News Archive

On December 10^th, the USDA released their December Crop Forecast estimating the US Pecan Crop at 306.5 million pounds (inshell basis).  This is a 5% increase over their October estimate and 20% over last year’s crop.  It is important to remember that the USDA only provides estimates for the five largest pecan producing states which account for approximately 85% of total US production.  With that in mind, the US crop is actually closer to 350 million pounds.  While the USDA reduced their projection for New Mexico by 9-million pounds (from 86 to 77 million pounds) and left Arizona unchanged, it increased its forecasts for Georgia, Oklahoma and Texas.  The biggest increases were seen in Texas and Georgia where the estimates were raised by 15-million and 10-million pounds respect

While reading the October issue of The Pecan Grower magazine, I was struck by several comments in the article authored by Dr. Lenny Wells.  The one that jumped off the page was the comment on sheller participation on the Board of the American Pecan Council, “The biggest gripe most growers have is that shellers sit on the board of the American Pecan Council.” I thought that the industry was long past this, but apparently not.  Not only are there still growers who would like to blame the shellers for the industry’s current woes, there are a number who believe that the APC itself is to blame and should therefore be eliminated.  Neither position could be further from the truth nor more detrimental to our industry.

The USDA released the September Cold Storage Holdings today, the final report for the 2019 crop.  While the industry may be entering the fourth year of a depressed market, there was good news in the numbers.  The following is an overview of the supply and consumption situation based on today’s release:

While the 2019/2020 marketing year will probably go down as one of the strangest in history (someone suggested that if it were a movie, it would be the equivalent of Deliverance), there were a number of positives to come out of it.

With yesterday’s release of the June Cold Storage Holdings, the industry’s supply and consumption picture got a little clearer. When combined with the Texas Pecan Grower’s Association (TPGA) 2020 crop estimate, the supply situation shapes up as follows:           

For those who might have missed it, the USDA NASS published the Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2019 Final Summary back on May 5, 2020. Historically, the crop final was published in July; however, to bring the report more into line with current planting and harvesting schedules, they published the report in June last year and moved it to May this year.  Speaking with the USDA, future summary reports will continue to be published in May.  Based on their survey of US Pecan Growers, the final 2019 crop came in at 255.6 million pounds (inshell basis for the five largest producing States).  That would put the actual size of the crop somewhere around 300 million pounds.  It will be interesting to compare that figure with the APC final number due out in September.

Under the Federal Marketing Order, the American Pecan Council is required to audit at least 25% of the handlers each year to ensure compliance with the order.  Not only do the audits ensure compliance, but it is an opportunity to increase dialogue between the industry and the organization responsible for increasing consumer knowledge of pecans, their health benefits, value and versatility.

Since the USDA’s release of the March Cold Storage Holdings, I have received numerous inquiries relative to the amount of product in inventory and the possible impact on pricing. Contrary to what one ‘less-than-reputable’ blogger has reported, there is no Sheller/Broker conspiracy to push prices lower. While the number is higher than usual, it is not unheard of.  In fact, data collected to date is following very closely with the same period in 2013.

For the second month in a row, we have seen significant increases in the Cold Storage figures.  While there is some concern that the increase could be related to the COVID-19 virus, that does not explain the January jump.  Further, annual shipments to China, Korea and Japan are considerably lower than the January increase alone.  The February increase, and resultant inventory figure, are the largest in the history of the pecan industry, not just for the month of February but for any month ever. Yes, the virus could be part of the cause, but again, only part of the cause.

So, what is going on?  Unfortunately, there is no one answer.  It is a combination of things.  Here are just a few of the possibilities:

Contrary to what was published last week by a less than reputable blogger, based on recently released USDA FAS data, and currently available crop information, both US pecan exports and US Domestic Consumption continue to rise.  According to the December FAS data, overall pecan exports are up 13% over the same period a year ago.  Kernel exports are up 6.1%, inshell exports up almost 30%.  Inshell exports to China, even with the higher tariffs, are up over 550%.  To date, exports to China in the first five months of the 2019 crop year have almost matched all of 2018’s shipments.

Over the next few months, every major pecan industry association will be meeting to discuss the 2020 crop, prices, trade issues, the direction of the industry, etc.  As is normally the case, there will be a plethora of complaints about pricing, inconsistent yielding of inshell, imports from Mexico, the poor quality of pecans in some of the nation’s largest retailers, etc.  Some will want to complain about the American Pecan Council, its board members, where the assessment is being spent, etc., but there will probably be no discussion about the industry’s unwillingness to do what is necessary to solve many of the above problems.  There are three things that could help to address the aforementioned issues, all of which the APC has attempted to resolve but continues to get push-back from t

For those who are relatively new to the pecan industry, there was a time when the USDA NASS published a September, October and  December crop estimate as well as a January Preliminary Crop report and a June/July Crop final.  Due to budget cuts, and the cost of publishing that number of reports for such a small industry, most of those reports have been discontinued, taxpayer dollars now only paying for an October crop estimate and a June final, reports that only cover the five largest producing states; not very helpful for anyone trying to determine supply. Last year the American Pecan Council voted to fund both a December Crop Estimate and a January Preliminary Crop Report, the idea being that with better and more timely information, it might be easier for sellers to more accur