News Archive

This past Friday the USDA released their December estimate of the 2022 Pecan Crop (Crop Production Report).  As expected, they reduced the projection from their October estimate of 290.5 million pounds (inshell basis) to 280 million. Based on currently available information, the supply situation shapes up as follows:

The USDA released the October cold storage figures today.  At 119.9 million pounds (inshell basis), the industry is carrying the lowest amount of inventory, for the month of October, since 2017.  Further, the USDA revised the September Cold Storage figures to 146.8 million pounds; the lowest carry out since 2016.  Based on currently available information, the supply situation shapes up as follows:

The USDA NASS released the first of their 2022 Pecan Crop forecasts today estimating the crop at 290.5 million pounds (inshell basis).  While it is important to remember that the USDA only surveys the five largest producing states (they account for approximately 90% percent of US production), for the first time in over 35 years, the Tri-State Growers Association, the Texas Pecan Growers Association, the National Pecan Shellers Association and the USDA estimates are all within a few million pounds of each other.  Based on currently available information, this is how the US Supply situation shapes up:

The USDA NASS June cold storage figures released today continue to indicate that the industry will carry-out fewer pecans than a year ago, and fewer than any year since 2017.  Based on currently available information, the supply situation shapes up as follows:

Earlier this week the Texas Pecan Growers Association closed the organization’s annual meeting with their estimate of the 2022 US Pecan Crop. At 304 million pounds, it is almost identical to the Tri-State estimate that was released in June (307 million).  As such, the estimate has had no impact on current market pricing which appears to have peaked back in May.  While the market has stabilized at levels slightly lower than May’s peak, there is no indication that buyers should expect to see significant declines going forward.

Like the weather, things often change overnight in the pecan industry. Back in January it appeared that the industry’s carryout would be the smallest in ten years.  Consumption was running relatively close to 2021 levels, imports were running ahead of prior year levels and the industry was looking at the first opportunity in three years to make some money.  However, inflation, poor crop reporting out of Mexico, higher prices and the continued logistics issues quickly changed that.  Based on the Cold Storage holdings reported over the last three months, FAS export data and Customs import information, consumption has definitely hit a wall. 

While prices remain firm in the face of tighter than expected supplies and a continued appetite for pecans, last week’s release of the February Cold Storage figures, as well as US Customs data relative to Mexican imports, would appear to indicate that both the US and Mexican crops were larger than originally forecast.  While the cold storage figures would seem to indicate that the US Crop was slightly larger than the last USDA estimate of 258 million pounds, it is the import figures that shed the most light on the supply situation. Let me explain.

This past Monday, the USDA released the December Cold Storage holdings.  While the figure showed a lower-than-expected inventory position, it should not have come as a surprise. For months, the industry has known that both the US and Mexican crops were considerably smaller.