Pecan Market Update

July 14, 2009

Today the Texas Pecan Growers concluded their annual meeting with their estimate of the 2009 Pecan Crop.  As usual, estimates were provided by both Kenneth Pape and Kyle Brookshier.  Based on their figures, the supply situation could shape up as follows:

Crop Pape Brookshier
2008 Carry-in(est) 90,000,000 70,000,000
2009 US Crop(est) 328,000,000 312,250,000
2009 Mexico(est.) 100,000,000 93,000,000
TOTAL SUPPLY (est.) 518,000,000 475,250,000

While the 2008 carry-in and US Crop estimates are not far from what many in the industry have projected, the two estimates for Mexico do raise some questions. Since 2003, the imports from Mexico (inshell equivalent) have averaged 126.8 million pounds.  Through June 14, 2009, the Mexicans had already exported over 115 million pounds to the US and the 2008 crop was supposed to be their 'off-year' crop. 2009 is supposed to be the 'on-year' for Mexico. As such, it would appear that both estimates are on the low side.  Regardless, based on all of the current projections, and barring any natural disasters between now and the harvest, there should be enough Pecans to handle demand.  Due to the anticipated increase in exports to China, the industry will probably continue to see shortages of Mammoth, Jr. Mammoth and Jumbo Pecan Halves as well as Extra Large and Large Pecan Pieces.