Pecan Market Update

June 22, 2012

The Tri-State Growers concluded their annual meeting last week with the release of the season's first 2012 Pecan Crop estimate. Based on input from their members, they are projecting a 2012 crop of 265 million pounds (inshell basis). When one considers the severe drought conditions experienced throughout the pecan belt last year and the fact that the average 'off-year' crop is generally somewhere around 190 to 200 million pounds, this is a very encouraging number. Assuming that the crop comes in as projected, and barring any natural disasters, the supply situation shapes up as follows:

2011 Carry-Out (estimate) 122,000,000
US Crop (Tri-State estimate) 265,000,000
Mexican Imports (estimate) 135,000,000
Total Supply (estimate) 522,000,000*

*The above figures do not include production in Australia and South Africa the bulk of which is consumed in the respective countries or exported to China.

Based on current inventory figures, overall consumption appears to be down almost 20% since the highs of 2009 and 10% below last year. Recently released Cold Storage figures would appear to indicate that consumption is running somewhere around 380 million pounds.

While exports continue to be the bright spot in the market, the recent strengthening of the dollar against other major world currencies, especially the Euro, could begin to slow overseas shipments. Further, considering the fact that the South Africans are expected to harvest a record crop and that the Chinese New Year is several weeks later this year than last, it is possible that the industry will not experience the wide price swings that dominated the 2011 harvest. Bottom line; there should be more than enough Pecans to go around. As always, should you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me at 630-377-2628.