USDA Reduces 2022 Crop Estimate, Imports Continue to Lag

January 27, 2023

In the past week, the USDA has released two sets of numbers that shed a little more light on the pecan market.  On January 19th, USDA NASS released their preliminary 2022 crop year pecan production report forecasting a slightly smaller crop than projected in December.  At 275 million pounds (inshell basis), the crop is forecast to be approximately 8% larger than the 2021 crop.  However, overall supply is down 11.2% over the same period and 13.4% over 2020’s record supply. 

USDA Reduces 2022 Crop Estimate

December 12, 2022

This past Friday the USDA released their December estimate of the 2022 Pecan Crop (Crop Production Report).  As expected, they reduced the projection from their October estimate of 290.5 million pounds (inshell basis) to 280 million. Based on currently available information, the supply situation shapes up as follows:

 

There is No Reason for the Industry to Panic

November 22, 2022

The USDA released the October cold storage figures today.  At 119.9 million pounds (inshell basis), the industry is carrying the lowest amount of inventory, for the month of October, since 2017.  Further, the USDA revised the September Cold Storage figures to 146.8 million pounds; the lowest carry out since 2016.  Based on currently available information, the supply situation shapes up as follows:

USDA Releases first of their 2022 Pecan Crop Updates

October 12, 2022

The USDA NASS released the first of their 2022 Pecan Crop forecasts today estimating the crop at 290.5 million pounds (inshell basis).  While it is important to remember that the USDA only surveys the five largest producing states (they account for approximately 90% percent of US production), for the first time in over 35 years, the Tri-State Growers Association, the Texas Pecan Growers Association, the National Pecan Shellers Association and the USDA estimates are all within a few million pounds of each other.  Based on currently available information, this is how the US Supply situation shapes up:

June Cold Storage Holdings Indicate Smallest Carry-Out Since 2017

July 22, 2022

The USDA NASS June cold storage figures released today continue to indicate that the industry will carry-out fewer pecans than a year ago, and fewer than any year since 2017.  Based on currently available information, the supply situation shapes up as follows:

 

Texas Growers Estimate 2022 US Crop at 304 Million Pounds

July 15, 2022

Earlier this week the Texas Pecan Growers Association closed the organization’s annual meeting with their estimate of the 2022 US Pecan Crop. At 304 million pounds, it is almost identical to the Tri-State estimate that was released in June (307 million).  As such, the estimate has had no impact on current market pricing which appears to have peaked back in May.  While the market has stabilized at levels slightly lower than May’s peak, there is no indication that buyers should expect to see significant declines going forward.

USDA Releases Final 2021 Crop Figure

May 20, 2022

Like the weather, things often change overnight in the pecan industry. Back in January it appeared that the industry’s carryout would be the smallest in ten years.  Consumption was running relatively close to 2021 levels, imports were running ahead of prior year levels and the industry was looking at the first opportunity in three years to make some money.  However, inflation, poor crop reporting out of Mexico, higher prices and the continued logistics issues quickly changed that.  Based on the Cold Storage holdings reported over the last three months, FAS export data and Customs import information, consumption has definitely hit a wall.