August Cold Storage Holdings Seem to Indicate Stable Pricing in the Months Ahead

September 23, 2019

At the conclusion of the National Pecan Sheller’s annual meeting, the association projected a 2019 US crop of 303,275,000 lbs.  As part of their estimate, they projected a 2019 carry-in of 180 million pounds.  Based on today’s release of the August Cold Storage Holdings, that figure should be very close.  Averaging the Tri-state, Texas Pecan Grower and NPSA US crop estimates, the supply situation shapes up as follows:

2019 Carry-in (NPSA estimate)                              180,000,000

2019 US Crop (Average of 3 estimates)               275,425,000

2019 Mexican Imports (NPSA ‘Net’ estimate)    230,000,000

2019 Supply available to US Marketers               685,425,000*

*Note: The above figures assume a 50% meat to inshell conversion rate. 2018/2019 Available supply to US Marketers was approximately 672,321,000 lbs (inshell basis).

2019/2020 worldwide supply is also expected to be similar to last year.  Based on recent crop history, the current price differential between halves and pieces and the time it took the industry to rebalance the last piece over-supply situation, barring another natural disaster, pecans will again be competitively priced, especially when compared walnuts.  As such, regardless of when the US/China trade dispute is settled, the industry should see another increase in consumption over the coming months.