2018 Pecan Shipments/Committments Bode Well for 2019

October 24, 2019

On Tuesday, the USDA released the September Cold Storage Holdings.  Based on their figures, 2018 supply shaped up as follows:

2018 Available Carry-in (USDA minus APC Sept. Commitments)             69,911,915

2018 US Crop (USDA)                                                                                    242,920,000

2018 Mexican Imports (FAS)                                                                        322,218,000

2018 Supply available to US Marketers                                                     635,049,915

Less 2018 Carry-Out (USDA)                                                                        182,081,000

2018 Apparent Consumption                                                                      452,968,915

While the APC has yet to publish the industry’s ‘committed’ inventory position as of September 30th,  using the August 31, 2019 figure of 109,139,497 lbs., actual shipments and commitments were approximately 562,108,412.

Assuming that all of the commitments will get shipped as contracted, 2019 available supply shapes up as follows:

2019 Available Carry-in (USDA minus APC August Commitments)         72,941,503

2019 US Crop (USDA)                                                                                   281,000,000*

2019 Mexican Imports (NPSA ‘Net’ estimate)                                         230,000,000

2019 Supply available to US Marketers                                                     583,941,503

*Note: Beginning in Oct 2019, the USDA estimate is based solely on the 5 largest producing states (AZ, GA, NM, OK & TX). 

Based on the above, barring any unforeseen natural disasters or an unexpected settlement of the US/China trade dispute, buyers are likely to see another year of competitive pecan prices and increased sales opportunities.  Further, should prices of almonds, walnuts and pistachios continue to firm, those increases could positively impact pecan consumption well beyond the current crop year.