June Cold Storage Holdings and Texas Pecan Grower's 2020 Crop Estimate Highlight Continued Oversupply Situation

August 03, 2020

With yesterday’s release of the June Cold Storage Holdings, the industry’s supply and consumption picture got a little clearer. When combined with the Texas Pecan Grower’s Association (TPGA) 2020 crop estimate, the supply situation shapes up as follows:           


2019 Crop Year

2020 Crop Year




US Crop



Mexican Imports**



Total Supply**









*Note: The Texas Pecan Grower Estimate is based on production in all 16 producing States while the 2019 USDA final is based on production in only the five largest producing states.  As such, 2019 supply could be understated by as much as 35 to 40 million pounds.

** NFF Estimates based on USDA NASS and USDA FAS historical data

The 2019 Mexican import figure above may be conservative.  As of July 20th, 282.9 million pounds (inshell basis) had crossed the border; only 2% less than the same period a year ago.  For the 2018 crop year, Mexico exported a record 322.2 million pounds to the US.

Based on USDA FAS data, US pecan exports continue to be ahead of last year, up by approximately 12%.  Unfortunately, US consumption has slowed primarily due to the COVID-19 crisis and the reduction in shipments to the hard-hit food service industry.

As for US exports to China, while still well below pre-trade war levels, they continue to be significantly ahead of 2019 levels.  Although there are questions as to the number of pecans remaining in their inventory, and regardless of the current trade and political tensions between the world’s two largest trading partners, China is going to need additional pecans.  While they may not be able to buy them from the US, any purchases can only help to reduce the current oversupply situation.