In December 2016, for only the second time in the history of the pecan industry, prices for both Fancy Jr Mammoth Halves and Fancy Medium Pieces topped the $7 per pound mark.  By the end of the month, prices had set a new record topping $7.15/lb for both items. At that time, the total available supply to US Shellers was 642 million pounds with a carry in of 129 million pounds. Today, the total available supply is 615 million pounds with a carry in of 124 mil

On October 11, the USDA published the long awaited proposal to revise both the inshell and shelled pecan standards,  It is the first major revision to the standards since their initial publishing in July 1969.  There are several major changes.  They are as follows:

1. The old kernel standard had two grades, US #1 and Commercial Grade. Both have been eliminated.

The USDA NASS released the September Cold Storage Holdings today, and as expected, the carry out will be the smallest since 2016. Based on the smaller than expected crop projections, overall supply will be approximately 8% less than a year ago. 

The USDA surprised the industry today when they released the first of their 2023 US pecan crop estimates.  Based on their surveys, they are projecting a crop of only 248 million pounds, down 11 percent from 2022 (277.7 million pounds), and other than 2018, the smallest crop since 2008. Based on the smaller than normal carry out, and other currently available data, the domestic supply situation shapes up as follows:

The National Pecan Sheller’s Association closed their 2023 annual meeting projecting a 2023 pecan crop of 303.1 million pounds (inshell basis).  Averaging the three major pre-harvest industry crop projections (Tri-State Grower estimate, the Texas Pecan Grower estimate and the National Pecan Sheller’s Association estimate), all of which were very close, the US is projected to have a crop of approximately 306.7 million pounds (inshell basis).  While this is slightly higher than the 2022 crop (approximately 10%), increased domestic consumption will result in the lowest car

On July 31^st, the USDA FAS, as well as US Customs, concluded the 2022/2023 import/export year.  While FAS will not publish their final figures until early September, US Customs data indicated that Mexico exported the same amount of pecans to the US as they did in 2021.  Therefore, based on currently available data, the supply available to US marketers shapes up as follows:

Today’s release by USDA NASS of the May Cold Storage Holdings continues to show a significantly lower inventory.  Based on current consumption, the industry could carry out well below 120 million pounds come September 30.  Even with the Tri-State Grower estimate of a 322 million pound 2023 crop, supplies will remain tight well into the fall.

For those of you who may have missed it, on May 8, 2023, the USDA published the final 2022 Pecan Crop Figures.  Based on their survey, the US Crop was 277.7 million inshell pounds based on 409,000 bearing acres.  Of the total, improved varieties accounted for approximately 270.7 million pounds at an average price of $1.82/lb.  The average price paid for natives was $1.19/lb which moved the overall price slightly lower to $1.80/lb.  Being only slightly larger than their January preliminary figure of 275 million pounds, the release should have little or no impact on the market.