News Archive

For what has certainly been a year for the record books, yesterday’s Cold Storage figures were certainly encouraging.  For the first time since April 2018, there are less pecans in inventory than there were in the prior year. Yes, the harvest started late and shipments of Mexican inshell are down 37% from the same period a year ago.  However, when one considers that since November 2018 the industry has reduced the inventory surplus by approximately 37 million pounds, there can be no doubt that consumption is headed in the right direction.  Further, with the announced resolution of the US-China trade dispute, prices have finally started to turn around.

Well it seems that Mr. Matthew Bailey just can’t seem to help himself.  As he has done on numerous previous occasions, he has again attempted to slander and defame the reputation of myself, Mr. George Martin and Navarro Pecan Company.  In an article published today on his website, he has again seen fit to replace facts with lies and inuendo. In the post he refers to a lawsuit by Varistor AG, a court ordered judgment against Navarro, etc., all of which never occurred and accuses me of being complicit in unspecified crimes.

Today’s release of the USDA October Cold Storage Holdings, and their revision to the September figures, did little to change the consumption figures for 2018/2019.  Based on the revised figures, 2018 supply and consumption shaped up as follows:

2018 Available Carry-in (USDA minus APC Sept. Commitments)             69,911,915

2018 US Crop (USDA)                                                                                    242,920,000

2018 Mexican Imports (FAS)                                                                        322,218,000

2018 Supply available to US Marketers                                                     635,049,915

Less 2018 Carry-Out (USDA minus APC Sept. Commitments)                  80,478,376

On Tuesday, the USDA released the September Cold Storage Holdings.  Based on their figures, 2018 supply shaped up as follows:

2018 Available Carry-in (USDA minus APC Sept. Commitments)             69,911,915

2018 US Crop (USDA)                                                                                    242,920,000

2018 Mexican Imports (FAS)                                                                        322,218,000

2018 Supply available to US Marketers                                                     635,049,915

Less 2018 Carry-Out (USDA)                                                                        182,081,000

At the conclusion of the National Pecan Sheller’s annual meeting, the association projected a 2019 US crop of 303,275,000 lbs.  As part of their estimate, they projected a 2019 carry-in of 180 million pounds.  Based on today’s release of the August Cold Storage Holdings, that figure should be very close.  Averaging the Tri-state, Texas Pecan Grower and NPSA US crop estimates, the supply situation shapes up as follows:

2019 Carry-in (NPSA estimate)                              180,000,000

2019 US Crop (Average of 3 estimates)               275,425,000

2019 Mexican Imports (NPSA ‘Net’ estimate)    230,000,000

2019 Supply available to US Marketers               685,425,000*

Having just returned from what turned out to be a very productive American Pecan Council meeting as well as the industry’s second Pecan Congress, one cannot help but be impressed with the progress that the industry has made over the past twelve months.  New kernel and inshell standards have been approved and sent to the USDA for publication and public comment, industry marketing efforts are beginning to pay dividends, both domestically and internationally, for the first time ever, the industry is compiling accurate production acreage, the recently completed strategic plan is providing the direction needed to move the industry forward and much much more.

*** Note: The original newsletter had three graphs embedded in the text of the document.  Those graphs can be downloaded from the 'Market Conditions' drop-down tab on the Pecan Crop Statistics page.

Good information is essential to running a successful business, especially in the pecan industry; an industry historically starved for good data.  While the American Pecan Council (APC) is slowly changing that, there are still some sources out there that don’t seem to get it.  Such was the case recently when on multiple occasions, a certain blogger posted that the US Shelling industry had committed to ship over 1 billion pounds of pecans.  In the most recent blog, the writer stated,  “With a 525,485,734 pound supply deficit, the pecan industry may have trouble filling current contracts.” To make matters worse, the same article stated, “Over the past 8 months, the US Pecan industry has committed to ship1,042,086,408 lbs of pecans.”  Nothing could be further from the tru

With the release of the March American Pecan Council (APC) data, and contrary to what some have recently reported, the industry continues to find itself in an oversupply situation. Fifty-two percent of the total supply is still without a home.

The USDA NASS released the March Cold Storage Holdings today, and as might have been expected, revised upward the February holdings by approximately ten million pounds (inshell basis).  Why was this expected, because of the American Pecan Council report for February.  With the exception of November 2018, the difference between the USDA and APC figures has been relatively consistent.

For the better part of the past fifty years, the pecan industry has struggled to find its identity.  Unlike the almond and walnut industries where both grower and processor shared common geography, labor costs, environmental laws, etc., the pecan industry, due to its geographic reach, was shackled by many of those same issues.  Further, unlike its California competitors where early cooperatives fueled the economic engine that propelled those industries to world prominence, the fragmented and disparate pecan industry, lacking a unified goal and the leadership necessary to provide it with one, struggled.

There continues to be a lively conversation within the industry relative to total supply and consumption.  The recently revised USDA/NASS 2018 crop estimate did not seem to help much.  Due to weather related losses, they reduced their October estimate from 278.9 to 221.2 million pounds (inshell basis).  Using their estimate, as well as currently available industry crop data, the supply situation shapes-up as follows:

2018 Carry-In (50% conversion rate)                    162,653,000

2018 USDA NASS Estimate                                     221,200,000

2018 Net Mexican Imports (NPSA estimate)      260,000,000

2018 Total (Net estimate)                                       643,853,000*

“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing” – William Burke

While the actual originator of the above quote has been widely debated, its relevance has not. Too many times, especially in today’s politically correct society, rather than confront those who would use their power to bully and demean, good men (and women) find it easier to look the other way hoping to avoid the possibility of becoming the target of spurious attacks and character assassination themselves.

For the past two years, I have found myself to be the target of such attacks, not because I did anything wrong, but because I came to the defense of a friend.  Well, this ‘Fox’ has had enough.

The USDA finally released the December 2018 Cold Storage figures (January numbers are scheduled for release on March 7, 2019), and as expected, inventories continue to be running ahead of last year; 194.9 million pounds (inshell basis) vs 183.9 million pounds.  As has generally been the case since the American Pecan Council started publishing ‘Handler’ data, the USDA figures continue to show more in inventory than the APC figures indicate. This is to be expected since the USDA collects data from numerous ‘non-handler’ sources, some of whom are Growers who are not required to report inventory they hold until it enters commerce. Based on currently available information, much of the December difference can be attributed to stocks being held by Growers.

Let me start by asking a question.  What do the following names have in common: Beatrice Foods, Consolidated Foods, Pet Milk, Nut Tree, Ace Pecan Company, Young Pecan Company, SNA, Gold Kist, Terri Lynn, Tracy Lucky, San Saba Pecan Company and Golden Peanut and Tree Nut?  Answer: these are the names of the major US Shelling Companies that have either gone out of business or have had to move their shelling operations out of the southeast because they could not make money shelling southeastern pecans. This is not conjecture, this is fact.  Why do I mention this?