For those of you who may have missed it, on May 8, 2023, the USDA published the final 2022 Pecan Crop Figures.  Based on their survey, the US Crop was 277.7 million inshell pounds based on 409,000 bearing acres.  Of the total, improved varieties accounted for approximately 270.7 million pounds at an average price of $1.82/lb.  The average price paid for natives was $1.19/lb which moved the overall price slightly lower to $1.80/lb.  Being only slightly larger than their January preliminary figure of 275 million pounds, the release should have little or no impact on the market. 

As several others have pointed out, last week’s release of the March Cold Storage figures only confirms the fact that the industry is dealing with a severe supply shortage.

While the laws of supply and demand generally dictate market pricing, that is not always the case.  Geo-political issues, natural disasters and other unrelated issues often act to undermine the market.  Such is the case with the current pecan market.  Inflation, high interest rates, the War in Ukraine, logistics problems, etc., have all served to undermine the market even though, unlike the almond and walnut industries, there is a shortage of pecans.  On February 23^rd, the USDA released the January Cold Storage figures.  Looking at the supply situation a little differently, i.e.

In the past week, the USDA has released two sets of numbers that shed a little more light on the pecan market.  On January 19^th, USDA NASS released their preliminary 2022 crop year pecan production report forecasting a slightly smaller crop than projected in December.  At 275 million pounds (inshell basis), the crop is forecast to be approximately 8% larger than the 2021 crop.  However, overall supply is down 11.2% over the same period and 13.4% over 2020’s record supply. 

This past Friday the USDA released their December estimate of the 2022 Pecan Crop (Crop Production Report).  As expected, they reduced the projection from their October estimate of 290.5 million pounds (inshell basis) to 280 million. Based on currently available information, the supply situation shapes up as follows: