USDA Releases first of their 2022 Pecan Crop Updates

The USDA NASS released the first of their 2022 Pecan Crop forecasts today estimating the crop at 290.5 million pounds (inshell basis).  While it is important to remember that the USDA only surveys the five largest producing states (they account for approximately 90% percent of US production), for the first time in over 35 years, the Tri-State Growers Association, the Texas Pecan Growers Association, the National Pecan Shellers Association and the USDA estimates are all within a few million pounds of each other.  Based on currently available information, this is how the US Supply situation shapes up:

Note: Total supply indicates product available to US marketers and does not include pecans from other pecan producing countries. 2021 Mexican import figures are based on currently available USDA FAS data.  2022 Carry-In and Mexican Import figures are NFF estimates based on currently available USDA NASS & FAS data. Additional pricing and supply data has been posted in a downloadable PDF on the Pecan Statistics page under 'Market Conditions.'

With less than 40 million more pounds than a year ago, market prices may have already factored in the USDA estimate.  While prices have declined slightly since peaking in May, unless both the US and Mexico produce considerably more pecans than currently projected, prices may not weaken much more as supplies continue to be short, especially with respect to Jr Mammoth Halves and most piece sizes.  Further, with the recent rains in both Northern Mexico and the SW US, quality is expected to be good (which translates into fewer pieces).  Considering all of the above, as well as the higher costs of production (fertilizer up 400%, fuel up 50%, labor and transportation costs up, etc.), there is not much room for profit even at current market prices.