Texas Growers Estimate 2022 US Crop at 304 Million Pounds

Earlier this week the Texas Pecan Growers Association closed the organization’s annual meeting with their estimate of the 2022 US Pecan Crop. At 304 million pounds, it is almost identical to the Tri-State estimate that was released in June (307 million).  As such, the estimate has had no impact on current market pricing which appears to have peaked back in May.  While the market has stabilized at levels slightly lower than May’s peak, there is no indication that buyers should expect to see significant declines going forward. Unless the crop in Mexico turns out to be significantly larger than currently projected, pricing is projected to remain at or near current levels.  In the case of pieces, there is still plenty of room for an up-tick in prices as most are still being sold at a loss.

Consumption continues to be very good as evidenced by the fact that the May Cold Storage holdings figure was slightly lower than the May 2021 figure, a year in which prices were approximately $2/lb lower than current pricing levels. 

Finally, with the industry still reeling from three years of losses, and considering the fact that the nation is now facing a 9.1% inflation rate, fertilizer prices are up over 400%, fuel prices are over 70% higher, containers of any kind are still hard to come by, logistical delays continue to plague shippers and the fact that the industry has over 100 million pounds less shelling capacity than a year ago, the only thing standing in the way of a profitable 2022 is the shellers themselves. Only time will tell.