National Pecan Shellers Association releases their 2023 US Crop Estimate

The National Pecan Sheller’s Association closed their 2023 annual meeting projecting a 2023 pecan crop of 303.1 million pounds (inshell basis).  Averaging the three major pre-harvest industry crop projections (Tri-State Grower estimate, the Texas Pecan Grower estimate and the National Pecan Sheller’s Association estimate), all of which were very close, the US is projected to have a crop of approximately 306.7 million pounds (inshell basis).  While this is slightly higher than the 2022 crop (approximately 10%), increased domestic consumption will result in the lowest carry-out volume in almost ten years; 16.8 million pounds less than last year. While final damage figures from Hurricane Idelia will not be available until the harvest actually begins, based on currently available information, and because the hurricane hit a part of the state that accounts for approximately 33% of the state’s production, losses are projected to be less than 15 million pounds.  

COMNUEZ recently released their estimate of the 2023 Mexican crop placing it at 312 million pounds (inshell basis).  However, severe drought continues to adversely impact the major growing regions so many within the industry believe that the crop will be smaller.  Assuming that the current projections are correct, overall North American Production is expected to be almost identical to 2022. 

Due to many macro-economic conditions (high interest rates, inflation, the War in Ukraine, etc.), US pecan exports fell almost 24%.  However, as previously stated, US domestic consumption appears to have increased approximately 18%.  Due to the very good quality of the 2022 US and Mexican crops, pieces continue to be in extremely short supply with most shellers having to break/cut large pieces and certain half sizes to make medium, small and midget pieces. As such, pieces are now being sold at prices considerably higher that halves. This situation is expected to continue well into the coming year.